National Barometer - Aggregate

17%

Gwara Gwara

37%

iSbhujwa

46%

Nayi le Walk

The 2019 National Indlulamithi Barometer shows that South Africa is balanced between the Gwara Gwara and iSbhujwa scenarios, with a trend towards Gwara Gwara. Some indicators point to positive elements of the Nayi le Walk scenario, but these are in the minority.

National Barometer - by Key Driving Force

23%
45%
32%
5%
16%
79%
23%
50%
27%

Nayi le Walk

iSbhujwa

Gwara Gwara

When viewed according to the three key driving forces, the 2019 Barometer shows that the iSbhujwa Scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation. iSbhujwa and Gwara Gwara scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension, but Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is so strong in the Social Inequality dimension.

The indicators making up the 2020 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year. Indicators with insufficient data to make a judgment or outdated information are marked in grey.

Institutional capacity and leadership

The iSbhujwa and Gwara Gwara scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
State Administrative Capacity: financial management: public sector audit performance

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: financial management: tax revenue

Nayi le walk

State Administrative Capacity: municipal functionality

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: basic services provision: electricity

isbujwa

State Administrative Capacity: basic services provision: water

isbujwa

State-owned Enterprise management

Gwara Gwara

Policy Process: Climate Change

Nayi le walk

Policy Process: Land Reform

isbujwa

Policy Process: Health

isbujwa

National Gender Balance in Parliament

isbujwa

National Youth Representation in Parliament

isbujwa

Political Parties Constellation

isbujwa

Governance Quality

Nayi le walk

Media Freedom (laws and treatment of journalists)

isbujwa

Civil Society Strength

isbujwa

Political Rights and Civil Liberties

Nayi le walk

Climate Change Mitigation

Gwara Gwara

Institutional Environment for Small Business

Gwara Gwara

Economic Sectors: Mining

isbujwa

Economic Sectors: Agriculture

isbujwa

Economic Innovation and Adaptation

Gwara Gwara

Social Inequality

Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is so strong in the Social Inequality dimension.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
GDP Growth

Gwara Gwara

Inequality

isbujwa

Poverty

Gwara Gwara

Poverty reduction trend

Gwara Gwara

Nutrition/Poverty

isbujwa

Health: Life Expectancy

Nayi le walk

Health: Maternal mortality rate

Gwara Gwara

Health: Under-5 mortality rate

Gwara Gwara

Health: Child Stunting

Gwara Gwara

Employment: Share of youth NEET (not in education, employment or training)

Gwara Gwara

Employment: Young Youth (15-24) unemployed

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployed with advanced education

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployment, total

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployment race gap

Gwara Gwara

Education: ECD: inequality of group learning access for 4-5 year olds

Gwara Gwara

Education: grade 12 completion rate

Gwara Gwara

Education: tertiary

isbujwa

Safety: annual murder rate

Gwara Gwara

Safety: Traffic deaths

Gwara Gwara

Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation

The iSbhujwa scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
Media freedom (public support for)

Gwara Gwara

Sense of hope/belief in country's trajectory

Gwara Gwara

Trust/belief in Courts

Nayi le walk

Trust/belief in Courts

isbujwa

Perceived Freedom of speech

isbujwa

Perceived Freedom of civil society association and holding govt to account

isbujwa

Sense of hope/belief in country's economic trajectory

Nayi le walk

Perceived corruption trend

Gwara Gwara

National vs ethnic identity

Nayi le walk

Perceptions about reconciliation

isbujwa

Shared sense of history: TRC

isbujwa

Shared sense of history and future: land redistribution

isbujwa

National Barometer - Aggregate

52%

Gwara Gwara

34%

iSbhujwa

14%

Nayi le Walk

The National 2020 Indlulamithi Barometer measures trends from July 2019-Feb 2020 (pre-Covid-19). It shows that South Africa had passed the half-way mark to the Gwara Gwara scenario even before the start of the pandemic, marking a significant decline in social cohesion compared with 2019. Some indicators point to elements of the Isbhujwa and Nayi le Walk scenarios, but these are in the minority.

 

 

National Barometer - by Key Driving Force

24%
38%
38%
5%
15%
80%
14%
50%
36%

Nayi le Walk

iSbhujwa

Gwara Gwara

When viewed according to the three key driving forces, the 2020 Barometer shows that the iSbhujwa Scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation. iSbhujwa and Gwara Gwara scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension, but Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is so strong in the Social Inequality dimension.

The indicators making up the 2020 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year. Indicators with insufficient data to make a judgment or outdated information are marked in grey.

Institutional capacity and leadership

Gwara Gwara and iSbhujwa scenarios are equally present in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension, but Nayi le Walk scenario is represented too.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
State Administrative Capacity: financial management: public sector audit performance

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: financial management: tax revenue

Nayi le walk

State Administrative Capacity: municipal functionality

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: basic services provision: electricity

isbujwa

State Administrative Capacity: basic services provision: water

isbujwa

State-owned Enterprise management

Gwara Gwara

Policy Process: Climate Change

Nayi le walk

Policy Process: Land Reform

isbujwa

Policy Process: Health

isbujwa

National Gender Balance in Parliament

isbujwa

National Youth Representation in Parliament

isbujwa

Political Parties Constellation

Nayi le walk

Social Inequality

Gwara Gwara scenario dominates the Social Inequality dimension, except for Nayi le Walk scenario represented in one notable category – Life Expectancy.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
GDP Growth

Gwara Gwara

Inequality

isbujwa

Poverty

Gwara Gwara

Poverty reduction trend

Gwara Gwara

Nutrition/Poverty

isbujwa

Health: Life Expectancy

Nayi le walk

Health: Maternal mortality rate

Gwara Gwara

Health: Under-5 mortality rate

Gwara Gwara

Health: Child Stunting

Gwara Gwara

Employment: Share of youth NEET (not in education, employment or training)

Gwara Gwara

Employment: Young Youth (15-24) unemployed

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployed with advanced education

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployment, total

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployment race gap

Gwara Gwara

Education: ECD: inequality of group learning access for 4-5 year olds

Gwara Gwara

Education: grade 12 completion rate

Gwara Gwara

Education: tertiary

isbujwa

Safety: annual murder rate

Gwara Gwara

Safety: Traffic deaths

Gwara Gwara

Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation

The iSbhujwa scenario remains dominant when considering Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
Media freedom (public support for)

Gwara Gwara

Sense of hope/belief in country's trajectory

Gwara Gwara

Trust/belief in Courts

Nayi le walk

Trust/belief in Courts

isbujwa

Perceived Freedom of speech

isbujwa

Perceived Freedom of civil society association and holding govt to account

isbujwa

Sense of hope/belief in country's economic trajectory

Nayi le walk

Perceived corruption trend

Gwara Gwara

National vs ethnic identity

Nayi le walk

Perceptions about reconciliation

isbujwa

Shared sense of history: TRC

isbujwa

Shared sense of history and future: land redistribution

isbujwa

National Barometer - Aggregate

59%

Gwara Gwara

28%

iSbhujwa

12%

Nayi le Walk

The National 2021 Indlulamithi Barometer measures trends from July 2020 – May 2021, reflecting South Africa’s experience of the Covid 19 pandemic. It shows that South Africa is continuing to move deeper into the Gwara Gwara scenario during the course of the pandemic, marking a continued decline in social cohesion levels compared with 2020.

National Barometer - by Key Driving Force

24%
33%
43%
5%
10%
85%
8%
42%
50%

Nayi le Walk

iSbhujwa

Gwara Gwara

When viewed according to the three Key Driving Forces, the 2021 Barometer shows that the Gwara Gwara scenario is for the first time dominant across all Key Driving Forces. In spite of downward shifts in a number of indicators, those indicators which point to the Nayi le Walk scenario in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension have remained stable.

The indicators making up the 2021 Barometer are presented below. See the methodology report for more information on how each indicator is allocated to a scenario each year. Indicators with insufficient data to make a judgment or outdated information are marked in grey.

Institutional capacity and leadership

The Gwara Gwara scenario has surged ahead in the Institutional Capacity & Leadership dimension.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
State Administrative Capacity: financial management: public sector audit performance

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: financial management: tax revenue

isbujwa

State Administrative Capacity: municipal functionality

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: basic services provision: electricity

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: basic services provision: water

Gwara Gwara

State-owned Enterprise management

Gwara Gwara

Policy Process: Climate Change

Gwara Gwara

Policy Process: Land Reform

isbujwa

Policy Process: Health

isbujwa

National Gender Balance in Parliament

isbujwa

National Youth Representation in Parliament

Nayi le walk

Political Parties Constellation

Nayi le walk

Governance Quality

Nayi le walk

Media Freedom (laws and treatment of journalists)

isbujwa

Civil Society Strength

isbujwa

Political Rights and Civil Liberties

Nayi le walk

Climate Change Mitigation

Gwara Gwara

Institutional Environment for Small Business

Gwara Gwara

Economic Sectors: Mining

isbujwa

Economic Sectors: Agriculture

isbujwa

Economic Innovation and Adaptation

Gwara Gwara

Social Inequality

Gwara Gwara is dominant overall because it is still strong in the Social Inequality dimension.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
GDP Growth

Gwara Gwara

Inequality

isbujwa

Poverty

Gwara Gwara

Poverty reduction trend

Gwara Gwara

Nutrition/Poverty

Gwara Gwara

Health: Life Expectancy

Nayi le walk

Health: Maternal mortality rate

Gwara Gwara

Health: Under-5 mortality rate

Gwara Gwara

Health: Child Stunting

Gwara Gwara

Employment: Share of youth NEET (not in education, employment or training)

Gwara Gwara

Employment: Young Youth (15-24) unemployed

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployed with advanced education

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployment, total

Gwara Gwara

Employment: unemployment race gap

Gwara Gwara

Education: ECD: inequality of group learning access for 4-5 year olds

Gwara Gwara

Education: grade 12 completion rate

Gwara Gwara

Education: tertiary

isbujwa

Safety: annual murder rate

Gwara Gwara

Safety: Traffic deaths

Gwara Gwara

Gender wage gap

Gwara Gwara

Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation

The iSbhujwa scenario has been usurped by Gwara Gwara in Resistance, Resentment, Reconciliation.

Indicator Current scenario Indicator scenario position
(compared to previous year)
Δ
Media freedom (public support for)

Gwara Gwara

Sense of hope/belief in country's trajectory

Gwara Gwara

State Administrative Capacity: municipal functionality

Gwara Gwara

Trust/belief in Courts

Nayi le walk

Trust/belief in Courts
Perceived Freedom of speech

Nayi le walk

Perceived Freedom of civil society association and holding govt to account
Sense of hope/belief in country's economic trajectory

Nayi le walk

Perceived corruption trend

Gwara Gwara

National vs ethnic identity

isbujwa

Perceptions about reconciliation
Shared sense of history: TRC
Shared sense of history and future: land redistribution

Gwara Gwara

Belief in democratic dispensation

isbujwa

Trust national government

isbujwa

Sense of Trust in institutions to do what is right

Gwara Gwara

Trust in government as COVID-19 information source

Gwara Gwara