A floundering false dawn

The Gwara Gwara scenario paints a picture of South Africa as a demoralised land of disorder and decay. It embodies a nation torn between immobility and restless energy.

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Economic modelling of Gwara Gwara

Under Gwara Gwara, average economic growth drops below 2% with some periods of deep recession. Official unemployment never falls below 25%. And by 2030, approximately one third of the population remains in poverty.

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Key features of Gwara Gwara

These are some of the specific characteristics South Africa experiences in a ‘floundering false dawn’ scenario.

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Social cohesion is in steep decline as people retreat into linguistic and cultural identities.

Many key institutions are only partially ‘liberated’ – and some quickly get ‘recaptured’ by newly emerging elites.

Destructive battles within most of the major political parties are up, but opposition parties are able to form a coalition government between 2024 and 2029.

After the 2024 elections, many public institutions are returned to functionality and, after prolonged and fierce debate, the number of provinces is reduced to six.

Income inequality exceeds even the high levels of the 2010s.

The post-2024 coalition government is increasingly controlling, and individual freedoms are curtailed.