An enclave bourgeois nation

The iSbhujwa scenario imagines South Africa as a nation torn by deepening social divides, daily protests and cynical self-interest.

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Economic modelling of iSbhujwa

Under iSbhujwa, the country will under-deliver on government targets for 2030. Despite progress, unemployment will remain four times higher than the NDP target of 6%, And the per capita GDP will reach only approximately 60% of its target.

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Key features of iSbhujwa

These are some of the specific characteristics South Africa experiences in ‘an enclave bourgeois nation’ scenario.

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There is a rapid escalation in the number of social protests, reflecting a growing separation of South Africans by class and income levels.

Market-led interventions in education, health and the services of state-owned enterprises produce mixed results.

Faster land reform is rolled out, but under-investment in agriculture sees declines in food production and food security.

There is further erosion of trust in key societal institutions, even though many institutions improve their capacity and competence.

Slow but persistent currency depreciation dovetails with increasing government debt risk.

GDP growth averages 2.2% to 2030, and unemployment is reduced to around 22% in 2030.