Indlulamithi’s research method

How the scenarios were compiled


The research that provided the foundation for the Indlulamithi scenarios was a collaborative and creative venture, involving a range of stakeholders and social scientists.

The research team


The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA), in collaboration with Professor Somadoda Fikeni and under guidance from our leadership team, oversees and coordinates all research and development. This includes conducting interviews and focus groups, and coding and analysing qualitative data.

The process


Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios 2030 applies the methods used by Intuitive Logic School. This combines evidence-based social and economic research with the insights of experts — pushing them to think beyond the confines of the current reality to a future that is in many ways uncertain. As a result, the approach deals with two worlds: facts and perceptions.

Phase one

The qualitative research process included collecting data via interviews from the leadership group, steering committee, core participants and a wider sample of participants.

To enrich the research sample’s diversity, inclusivity, intellect and experience, Indlulamithi also conducted online conversations and face-to-face focus groups with young people from different communities and life circumstances.

Phase two

This research was supplemented by research papers on potentially influential issues, which were presented and discussed at a 2018 Research Conference.

The conference brought together academic experts, policy practitioners and young, emerging thinkers to grapple with some of the nation’s most pressing questions, from mother-tongue education to intergenerational trauma.

Phase three

Working sessions with the leadership group and core participants were held at intervals throughout the process, to identify factors emerging as key shapers of our reality.

Phase four

The trends were summarised into a number of key driving forces (KDFs) – forces most likely to be the most fundamental shapers of our world and our country heading towards 2030.

Phase five

The scenarios are woven around possible combinations of the various KDFs. Each storyline was constructed to provide the most plausible, challenging and inspiring narrative about the hurdles, opportunities and milestones South Africans might encounter on the journey to 2030.

Research reports


Below are the research reports used in phases one and two.

SA SCENARIOS REPORT 2018SA SCENARIOS REPORT 2019