Scenarios for South Africa

The Indlulamithi Scenarios were launched in Johannesburg on 21 June 2018 and comprise three visions of South Africa’s future, each typified by a popular dance. They are:

iSbhujwa – An enclave bourgeois nation

Loose-limbed and jumpy, with a frenetic edge, iSbhujwa is a South Africa torn by deepening social divides, daily protests and cynical self-interest. 

Nayi le Walk – A nation in step with itself 

The precision of steps in Nayi le Walk and the confident spirit denote a country where growing social cohesion, economic expansion and a renewed spirit of constitutionalism get the nation going. 

Gwara Gwara – A floundering false dawn

The people of South Africa are torn between immobility and restless energy, and Gwara Gwara is the name for a demoralised land of disorder and decay. 

Project coordinator Dr Somadoda Fikeni urged the public to engage with the scenarios. “We want South Africans across the spectrum of age, gender, ethnicity and socio-economic status to read through the different scenarios and recognise that they can help to create a stable, prosperous and socially cohesive country,” he said.

President Cyril Ramaphosa was among the 250-plus launch participants. He welcomed the scenarios as a timely contribution which had the potential to help individuals and organisations deal with the uncertainties of the future. He encouraged those who have the means to help build a better nation to resist the role of spectator and use the scenarios to “move from the armchair to the drawing board”.


2018/19 Indlulamithi Barometer preliminary results show that the country is trending mostly towards the Gwara Gwara scenarios. South Africa The barometer was launched on 21 June 2019 by the Indlulamithi South African Scenarios 2030 Project.


The Models and Indicators edition of the scenarios book is an updated version of the scenarios booklet that was published in June 2018. The book reports on insights acquired through the Indlulamithi national Roadshows, expands on key trends and developments for each of the 25 variables, provides economic modelling for each scenario provided by Applied Development Research Solutions and a barometer based on an index developed by Social Surveys Africa.


Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios 2030 launch event took place on 21 June 2018. This Multi-stakeholder initiative launched three compelling scenarios about the future of South Africa. #AboveTheTrees


This handy two-page summary contains a brief description of each scenario as well as a handful of key features in each scenario.


Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios 2030 has provided a tool to help every South African person and organisations plan better. This workshop video was created to assist in facilitating important conversations in the process of planning for the future. #AboveTheTrees


The 52-page document sets out the three scenarios in full. It also summarises the method used to develop them and describes the key driving forces that shaped the scenarios.

I am text block. Click edit button to change this text. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.